In the recent years, one of the areas influenced by the increasing global capital crisis is Balkan countries. All the countries in this region started to be determined by imperialism along with the capitalist restoration process that led to the dissolution of socialism. Promises of prosperity exported from Europe were introduced to the market under appropriate ideologic covers. European bourgeoisie was the one to make the biggest profit out of the painful remodelling process of the map of Balkans.
More particularly, recent developments in Western Balkans* are clear indicators of EU’s crisis. Even though the mainstream political parties of these countries compete for loyalty towards EU, these deviations have long become unexceptional. Beyond the state’s never-ending liquidation, it becomes more and more legitimate to think that “the end justifies the means” in order to protect the system along with political corruption.
BALKAN NATIONALISM LOSING ITS INFLUENCE
Taking advantage of the fact that “Yugoslavian” supra-identity was never widely recognised in Yugoslavia, nationalism started to rise in the 80s with promises of prosperity and they have been organised in a way that will exist with each other, particularly for that period. Even though similar promises and nationalist tendencies still exist, it is not possible to ground on the reflexes in dissolution years today – especially on the contrary of the common opinion in Turkish media.
Today, it is only possible to take advantage of nationalism in a discontinuous way, on certain grounds and in blocks. This is mainly because nationalism does not offer any material response to people; in brief, an empty nationalism does not satisfy. On the contrary, many ethnic-based political agents in Balkan countries keep taking various actions that are expected to trigger nationalism, because these agents have been fed by, and depend on this ideology since many years.
One can give numerous examples. Last January, Aleksandar Vučić’s government in Serbia tried to send a train on which it was written “Kosovo is Serbia” to Kosovo just before the elections. The same government also stated before the elections that Greece had a right attitude about the name Macedonia and that Slavic Macedonians imported Greek history for themselves. In another example, during the discussions on coalition alliances after the elections that took place in Macedonia last December, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama had met and posed with Macedonian Albanian leaders in Tirana. This act was interpreted as Albania’s interference in Macedonia’s internal affairs. The common trait of all these examples is that they quickly faded away despite creating mutual national reflexes. Such examples are very common.
COLLAPSING ECONOMIES AND INCREASING SOCIAL UNREST
Those follow this region closely should have realised that recent social reactions generally moved away from nationalist contents. In general, unemployment, poverty, the search of justice and political corruption led to widespread movements. As an example, the workers’ resistance that lasted many days in the city of Tuzla in Bosnia, the majority of which consists of industrial workers, had spread all around the country and opened remarkable cracks in government. The street movement that continues since three years in Macedonia and protests that lasted almost three weeks after the presidential elections that took place in Serbia last month have the same character.
Endless employment in Balkan countries turned these people into cheap labour for Europe for many years. World Bank data shows that official unemployment level has reached thirty percent. Unemployment rates of 2015 are higher than the average long-term unemployment rate in every single country of Western Balkans.
World Bank’s report on Western Balkans shows that the current budgetary deficits have an increasing trend. While regional budgetary deficit was corresponding to 6.2% of GNP in 2015, it reaches 6.6% in 2016. It is expected to reach 7% by the end of 2017. In the report, World Bank proposes to increase tax audits, or, in other words, to breath down even more on people’s neck to close this deficit.
A research held by Polish MillwardBrown research company in 2009 reveals that in Western Balkans, the rate of those who consider living or who already live in another place than their own reaches 56% of the total population. Each year, an important part of the population seeks to move to another country in this region while current rates are expected to be even higher.
THE EU EFFECT AND RESULTS OF THE CRISIS
Even though pro-EU stance can be found in all mainstream political parties in Balkans, it has largely lost grassroots support. Increasing demand for reforms and decreasing number of people voting in elections are indicators of this fact. EU-centered statistics show that in the early 2000s, popular support for EU membership in Serbia was around 70% while it decreased to 47% in 2016. While popular support for EU membership was around 80% in the early 2000s in Croatia, it declined to 40% in early 2010s.
Governments in Balkans do not have many options in this situation. Close relations with EU that emerged after the dissolution make these economies more dependent on EU. As long as the systems in these countries are based on this relationship, we can expect that the tension between political representatives and people will increase.
Data provided by International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that 68% of the total regional import in Western Balkans, as well as 85% of the total export, is made with EU. IMF’s data sheet reveals that countries such as China and Russia have a much lower economic influence than EU.
However, having commercial relations with Greece and Albania for many years, China is trying to expand its sphere of influence by adding Macedonia and Serbia to these countries. Similarly, Russia seeks to realize the natural gas pipeline project that will reach Central Europe by crossing Turkey and Balkans.
EU’s crisis creates remarkable gaps in managing Balkans. Nearly three years ago, they had faced EU sanctions when Bulgaria and Serbia had approved the Tesla natural gas pipeline project that would link Russia to Balkans with Turkish Stream project. Yet, the project is still relevant despite the reaction of EU.
INCREASING MILITARY CONCENTRATION
An important amount of military concentration takes place in Balkans, mainly by NATO but also by USA. This concentration is actually a result of imperialist competition.
There is no doubt that Kosovo is the most important existence area of NATO and USA in Balkans. Recently, both Donald Trump and secretary of state of USA had announced that they would increase their military presence in Kosovo. In the previous days, Montenegro’s NATO membership was approved and NATO’s next candidates are now Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It should also be noted that one and a half year ago, Serbia had signed a weapon agreement with Russia and a joint military exercise was performed in Serbia with Russia. Besides all, double-crossing Serbian government has not been keeping NATO in arm’s length.
What precedes and shapes these military developments is both the aforementioned competition on obtaining a market share in Balkans and a larger-scale international imperialist competition.
As long as it is the imperialist powers that determine the current political situation in Balkans, it seems that potential developments will be determined by the crisis of imperialism for the moment. However, the mass protests that took place in the recent years out of class-related reactions exceeded the models proposed by EU. These parameters may probably create a new composition in power balances of this region in the future.
Mapping the crisis of imperialism - I, II, III, IV, V, VI:
