Member of the CC of Communist Party of Turkey (TKP), soL columnist, Özgür Şen wrote an article on February 1, 2017 on the current military situation of Turkey in Syria's al-Bab province under desperate policies of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
AKP's desperation in al-Bab
It is not a mystery anymore that the Turkish army cannot gain ground at planned speed in al-Bab [Islamic State-held town in northern Syria]. Apart from the striking silence of AKP in this respect, the army sources do not provide clear information neither. They only provide information about how many IS members are killed or the extent of the harm done to IS. However, they do not provide concrete information about the current situation of the concrete goals of the military operation since it is obvious that the operation is farther away from the initially set goals. Let alone the cries of victory, even any expectation of victory is not expressed loudly.
It does not mean that Turkey does not gain ground at all in contrary to the allegations of some sources. Yet, no rosy scenario is available for now…
Moreover, no one intends to draw an optimistic scenario. The fact that any AKP member rages at the U.S. and the Western powers or complains about the lack of support can be regarded as an indication to the sharpness of Turkey’s situation in Syria.
But why? Why has Turkey ended up with such a situation in this operation?
It is an unquestionable fact that Turkey has one of the most influential armed forces in the region. Turkey has sufficient numbers of jets, tanks, and troops so as to carry out such an operation. Turkey has enough economic strength to increase its military build-up in al-Bab, too. Turkey has an adequate financial potential to fund this operation in spite of a possible crisis, the impact of which is being highly perceived…
Some claim that the army resorts to widespread area bombardment since it lacks of air-to-surface-missile technology. Despite such claims seem true, they do not explain the situation appropriately. Of course, Turkey is technologically behind the U.S., for example, but it should not be omitted that Turkey is not fighting the U.S. or Russia in al-Bab. Contrarily, it is carrying out an operation in Syria where technological deficiencies could be compensated with alternative methods.
Of course, they might have planned to compensate such deficiencies with the aid of the U.S. or other allies during the preparation phase of the operation. We do not know the extent and quality of the aid that the U.S. promised to supply in this operation. Nevertheless, we already know that figures from AKP, notably Erdoğan are complaining in this respect. However, the lack of NATO aid does not explain the existing failure of the operation, either. Implying that Turkey cannot carry out this operation single-handedly, this approach seems no true despite AKP authorities concede the deficiency in question.
In other words, the allegation with regard to Turkey’s technical inadequacy seems meaningless; Turkey is such a country that could successfully complete this operation. Yes, no one can hide that there is an incapability anymore, yet incapability is being sought out in wrong realms…
Alleging that Turkey’s capability of combat has so plainly diminished after the interventions in the army following July 15 [failed coup attempt] that it has resulted in the current situation in al-Bab is just enlightening a part of the big picture.
Furthermore, building this thesis on the allegation that the Gulenist personnel [coup attempt suspects the U.S.-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen and his religious order members] were well trained within the armed forces already seems problematical. There is no rationality in this thesis… Only AKP members could think that the Gulenists are also fine soldiers. They thought so at one time and carried out assignments in this direction.
Of course, the liquidation process in the army seems to have led to attrition in the general staff. It should be expected that this attrition may intensify the reflexes of rapidly developing accusations within the army during a failure. Therefore, it may be true that the officers in charge of the Euphrates Shield Operation do not get along with each other and that the special forces and the land forces accuse each other for the outcomes of the operation. However, tensions between the officers, if any, should not be seen as cause but effect.
Military and technical inadequacies, planning errors, wrong expectations regarding the allies, intra-army problems… Despite all these evaluations on the Euphrates Shield Operation point out to a part of the problem, they do not focus on the central problem.
Turkey cannot take what it wants at the planned speed and structure because the political power that rules Turkey cannot stand assertively enough regarding al-Bab and Syria.
Above all, this operation cannot be commanded politically. As all military operations show in history, all problems that emerge in military or technical level are increasing while resolvable problems remain unresolved.
Nowadays, AKP is talking about a need of change in the Syrian policy, taking steps in this direction. However, including international public opinion, no one actually knows what exactly AKP’s Syrian policy is today. A strategy cannot be established through daily or short-termed approaches against the Kurds or other forces in Syria.
Just think that a country is carrying out a cross-border military operation without any strategy and general staff with long-termed goals…
Capturing al-Bab does not matter. What matters is what will happen after al-Bab… Having no direction amid such a complicated balance in which Russia, the US, the Kurds, Assad, and the jihadists are all involved, thus doing politics in order just to save the day, Turkey is having difficulty in al-Bab since it does not know what will happen in al-Bab.
Indeed, it is AKP that becomes helpless in al-Bab… Therefore, they are responsible for the existing picture and the current situation of Turkey. In addition, all the allegations, which exclude AKP about the Euphrates Shield Operation, are doomed to be erroneous.
