The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) did not lose votes in June 24 elections contrary to expectations following MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's alliance with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the political split in his MHP party last year. Following the disputes in the fascist MHP last year, Meral Akşener founded an offshoot new ultra-far party called the Good Party.
On the other hand, vote shares according to provinces show meaningful changes when results of November 2015 elections and June 24 elections are compared. June 24 election results show that MHP more or less preserved its votes in its stronghold provinces like Kırıkkale and Osmaniye; and that increased its votes in the south-east, central, and eastern Anatolia and the Black Sea region excluding relatively progressive provinces like Sinop and Artvin.
However, MHP had a considerable vote loss in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Marmara region. This shows that the vote loss caused by voters drifted away from the MHP party was substituted by voters who are reconciled with the party.
A LOVE STORY
Bahçeli had been accused of backing up Erdoğan from now and then since the day the AKP government came to power. However, when the negotiation process started with the pro-Kurdish HDP party, the contradictions between MHP and AKP became more apparent than their similarities.
MHP-AKP relations entered a new period following the purge of Fethullah Gülen sect cadres after July 15 coup-attempt and the discussions on the geopolitical decisions of Turkey. MHP substituted for the emptied state positions following the purge of Gülen sect cadres with cadres from other sects like Menzil. In the same period, MHP substantially put aside its partial attitude towards AKP.
This relationship seems to get even more complicated given that a new period started in terms of AKP-MHP relations with the People's Alliance, the parliamentary composition following June 24 elections and the economic crisis the government is to face with.
MHP GAINED FROM ANTI-TERROR PROPAGANDA
The red colour in election maps of Turkey shows Aegean, Marmara and Mediterranean regions where MHP lost votes and the Good Party made a breakthrough. These regions also denote urbanised, modern and secular social composition that signify anti-İslamist attitude.
On the other hand, the vote results of MHP in June 24 elections show that modern-conservative tension does not in itself provide a full model to perceive political atmosphere in Turkey.
It seems that MHP increased its votes in regions where the state policy is implemented by resting on ethnic factors where ethnic tensions are felt more intensely in daily life. MHP seems to have been an address for voters who have drifted away from AKP for various reasons in regions where clashes between Kurdish seasonal workers-local population, Syrian refugees-local population, and Kurdish movement-state forces are concentrated.
VOTE INCREASE IN KONYA AND KAYSERİ
According to the results announced so far, MHP had substantial vote increase in Konya and Kayseri provinces since November 2015 elections. While vote rate of MHP in Konya was 11,4 percent in November 2015, it rose to 15,4 in June 24 elections. In Kayseri, on the other hand, it was 18,3 percent in November 2015, and it rose to 21,4 in June 24 elections.
In these two provinces where the economic consequences of the operations of AKP against the Gülen sect had higher impacts, the votes of Gülen sect had considerably gone to the Good Party. However, since some sections of the society who are not affiliated with the Gülen sect were also negatively influenced by AKP's interventions, their votes might have shifted from AKP to MHP.
KEY PARTY OR LOCKED PARTY?
AKP is the only party that has lost seats at the parliament although the number of parliamentary seats was extended to 600 in total prior to the elections. Since AKP could not reach the number of 300 seats, it will not be able to carry out law-making single-handedly.
Observers argue that MHP is key to the general parliamentary panorama, adding that the ruling AKP party may seek to take the support of MHP.
Considering that the AKP party could not reach the parliamentary majority only with 7 seats, the MHP party may not be a "key" party since the opposition parties seek for reconciliation with the ruling party, particularly during important agenda issues.
On the other hand, it seems impossible for the MHP party to get back its votes that slid into the Good Party, an offshoot new party that emerged after intra-party disputes in the fascist MHP. It is expected that MHP will continue to focus on the goals and policies of AKP, waiting for a failure in the government's policies in an attempt to benefit from the atmosphere of "anti-terrorism".
