Syria had long been one of the main obstacles standing against the US plans to reshape the Middle East, and it became ready to be shared with the devastating crisis. A possible partition and sharing of Syria would mark the beginning of a period of enmity among peoples of the region and a never-ending war of attrition carried out by jihadists.
As the United Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was withdrawing from the stage of history, Hafez Asad, an old hand in politics, was one of the earliest spotters of the new world order to come. The disintegration of the socialist bloc created two interrelated problems for Syria: first, Syria lost its strongest guarantor, and second, retaking the Syrian lands under Israeli occupation became practically impossible.
It was a time of keeping pace with the world without socialism and Hafez Asad was steering towards the USA. Syria, once the sticky wicket for the “resolution” of Arab-Israel question, was being incorporated to the “peace process”, and meanwhile, the US was defanging the historical rival of the Syrian Ba'ath, Saddam Hussein, by the support of Arab regimes.
Since then, the main demand of Syria for making “peace” with Israel has been the return of Golan Heights. Others were an “independent” integration with the imperialist system and economic liberalisation. What imperialist centres asked in return was severing ties with Iran (together with the Hamas and Hezbollah). Following the assassination of Rafic Hariri, Syria was driven out from Lebanon and Damascus was isolated in the international arena. Turkey entered the picture as the Trojan horse of imperialism.
BERLIN OR DAYTON OF SYRIA
The cyclical intensification of imperialist intervention to Syria had a qualitative turn in 2011. It was an operation of regime change through proxy war. The war followed a tortuous trajectory, leading to successive projected goals: Libyan model, Yemen model, and incorporation of Muslim Brotherhood to Damascus administration. The final version seems to be Damascus’ persisting in core regions under its control while Syria being divided among zones of influence. Some refer to post-WW2 Berlin and others to Dayton agreement, which allegedly marked the end of the Yugoslavian Civil War. However, it is still far from being certain whether the partition will be able to gain a legal status. This means that there is no any decapeptide on the horizon.
Nevertheless, we must keep in mind that the master plan is not limited to Syria. For while imperialist centres seem to consent to a resolution with Asad, they continue the war of attrition, attempts to partition, and breaking the Iran-Hezbollah influence.
The new US administration declared “war against ISIS” on top of the list while consolidating an anti-Iran axis in the region, which made it possible to bring together the subjects bearing enmity to the Damascus-Tehran-Beirut front. Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan ask for US favour to eat into Syria from all quarters. Considering all this together with Rojava [Kurdish provinces of Syria], which we will discuss shortly after, it is clear that there do not seem any bright times for Syria in near future, and yet it will continue to be a pain in the butt for the imperialist world.
On the other hand, we should note that the US is advancing in Palestinian question. From the viewpoint of imperialism and Zionism, the “opportunity” that emerged with the “Arab Spring” ushers in the fall of Palestinian question from the agenda, and replacement of the anti-Israel attitude with an outspoken enmity against Iran in the Arab world. Moreover, the anti-Americanism has declined, the US who had entered Iraq as massacrer has returned to the region as saviour, and the liberal and anti-popular politics of Arab regimes has been wrapped with the Islamic “revival.” What is left is a debris in terms of social struggles. If you will take a look at Tunis, which is being promoted as a success story nowadays.
CONTEST FOR SYRIA
Let’s have a look at the current situation. The consensus on non-aggression zones between Iran, Russia, and Turkey seems naturally as an agreement of partition at first sight. Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo, some parts of Hama, north of Homs, Eastern Ghouta in Damascus, and Quneitra and Daraa in South Syria are decided to be ceasefire zones between the Syrian army and the “opposition”, where humanitarian aid takes place under guarantor states’ monitoring.
However, the contest has just begun. With the ceasefire, the Syrian army had the chance to deploy its soldiers in these regions to the middle and eastern Syria. At the moment, Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor fronts are of great importance. The Syrian army is preparing to break the siege of ISIS in Deir ez-Zor with the support of Russia.
In addition to the ISIS siege lasting for over 2,5 years now, Deir ez-Zor is critical due to its strategic location between Iraq and Syria, hindering the unification of ISIS-controlled lands in two countries. In this sense, it is topical for the partition plans regarding Syria. The US does not want Syrian army at the Iraqi border. This is why the FSA forces, backed by Israel and Jordan, are pushing hard to reach from Daraa to Eastern Damascus, and from there to Abu Kamal checkpoint at the border. This front extends along the South towards Iraq, and what a coincidence: Jordan announces its plan to establish a buffer zone in Southern Syria (as I was writing this article, the news have arrived reporting that the US, British, and Jordanian forces are being deployed to the border). Israel’s plan for Druze region is the last piece of the puzzle, and there you go: a “jihadistan” backed by Turkey in northwestern Syria, a Rojava supported by the US in North East, an unstable “Sunnistan” along the Iraq-Syria border, and a buffer zone in the South established by Jordan-Israel cooperation.
Related to this, we must note the stern statement of Rıza Altun, a member of the Executive Council of the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) against Russia and his implication that the war can gravitate towards Iran. Meanwhile, PYD (Democratic Union Party) representatives claim that their reach to the Mediterranean coast is a “legitimate right” and add that they may march on Idlib and Deir ez-Zor afterwards. All these shipwrecks the dimwitted wishful thoughts of the Turkish left that the Kurdish nationalist movement is allied with the US out of “necessity.” All sides in this game called partition of Syria utter out their wishes to play their part.
SYRIA AS RUSSIA’S PORTAL TO THE MIDDLE EAST
Where does Russia stand in all this? Moscow proved its return to the Middle Eastern politics via its sudden intervention in Syria. Passing through Syrian portal, it managed to reach far: to Lebanon, Libya, and the Gulf. Although it went unnoticed, the stern reaction of the Emirates against the head of the Saudi-backed puppet government of Yemen, Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi, and its decision to withdraw from the occupation front in Yemen, is clearly linked to Russia. The effects of the economic relations between the Emirates and Russia occur in Libya as well. While it is Egypt and the Emirates who support Halife Haftar in the forefront, Russia too has its finger in the pie.
Nonetheless, Russia is not to engage in a war with the US for the sake of Syria. Moreover, the alternative plan on “detent in Syria” which has been kept in reserve since Obama suits Russia just fine too: a Syria divided among zones of influence would guarantee Russia’s presence in the region while at the same time keeping it at the forefront as a key subject for all actors. Saudis, the Emirates, Trump, Erdoğan, Asad, and Rohani… All keep an eye out for Putin’s preferences. Therefore, it is no secret that Russia is in search for a modus vivendi with the US on Syria.
THE COMING DANGER FOR THE PEOPLES OF THE REGION
What do all these mean for the peoples of the region?
It is obvious that a Syria under the total control of jihadists is not possible. However, this already fell off the agenda after the “red lines” of Obama had been erased in 2013. Since then, we have been speaking of a Syria divided by “moderate” forces, a Syria of “plan B.”
The main actors here are Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the gangs backed by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), and Free Syrian Army (FSA) bands supported by Jordan and Israel.
Turks and Kurds who nurse a grudge against each other while making up to the US, Kurds who express their “expansionist” tendencies by making mention of the Mediterranean, Turks who wish to annex the northern Syria, Arabs who are suspicious of others, Alawites and Shi’ites who will always be on the knife’s edge due to the jihadist wars of attrition, and Sunnis who are caught between jihadist barbarism, imperialism, and the reactionary Gulf states... This is the “end” awaiting the peoples of the region in a Syria divided among zones of influence.
Yet, there is another possibility. Peoples of the region will either gather under this or that power centres, or the repressed will unite through a revolutionary exit. But this is only possible with a determined will to break all ties with reactionary forces and imperialism and to topple down the capitalist class –mother of all evil.
Is this even remotely realistic? Empty slogans, aren’t they?
Is it more “realistic” that those who declare this to be the opposite dance with the US one day, and Russia the other?
There is a lesson to take from recent history: all “Arab nationalist” regimes came under attack by reactionary forces right after they let the liberalism in. Socialism was and is the only insurance against reactionary barbarism.
Tomorrow: DPRK, The country outside the bell-jar
Mapping the crisis of imperialism - I, II and III:
